South Africa, elections, by Mercia Andrews and Brian Ashley, AIDC, 23/4/2004
How
did the electorate in South Africa 's third democratic election respond to
almost 10 years of neoliberal policies?
They gave the ANC its biggest electoral victory yet. The ANC won a two-thirds
majority receiving almost 70 per cent of the vote. This, despite the fact that
the ANC over the last 10 years has overseen
the destruction of more than 1 million jobs
unemployment rise to over 40 per cent
redistribution of less than 3 per cent of land
the delay of the roll-out of a comprehensive HIV/AIDS treatment programme in the face of the highest infection rate in the world
the privatisation of major sectors of the economy
the disconnection of water, electricity and other services in poor communities unable to pay commercial rates, and
the increase in poverty and inequality since 1994
This election saw a substantial decline in voter turnout compared to the 1999 national election. Yet, the low number of voters is not at levels significant enough to undermine the ANC 's legitimacy nor the credibility of the political system. 20,6 million of South Africa 's estimated 27,5 million adults registered. The 69,7 per cent of the vote achieved by the ANC in a 76 per cent poll represents less than 40 per cent of the total eligible electorate. This decline was anticipated as the political situation in the country normalised. A large number of those who did not register or who did not bother to go and vote are not only township youth alienated by a bleak future of unemployment and poverty, but also white and so-called "coloured" voters alienated and dislocated from the changed political system.
The overwhelming election victory of the ANC is explained by several factors, but key amongst these is the lack of a credible alternative. By adopting a conservative macro-economic programme based on IMF / World Bank programmes the ANC shifted to the centre of the political landscape leaving little space for the traditional bourgeois parties. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the New National Party (NNP), the main opposition parties, are still closely associated with the apartheid system and failed to make any inroads into the ANC ?s massive black support base.
The DA (former liberal wing of the bourgeoisie) has continued its shift to the right. They played on the insecurities of the ?minority ?sections of the population by attacking affirmative action, demanding the return of the death penalty and other tough anti-crime measures. They increased their vote from 9,5 per cent to 12,3 per cent at the expense of the NNP, which was decimated. The NNP 's support fell from 20.3 per cent in 1994 to 1.6 per cent in 2004. The party of apartheid tried to remake itself as a party representing the moderate voice amongst the different population groups, and by cosying up to the ANC promised their supporters a moderating influence on the ANC. However, for its supporters amongst conservative whites and ?coloured ?voters, years of anti-ANC propaganda could not be cast aside so quickly and the voters deserted the sinking ship. The IFP, which is largely a regional party of Zulu speakers in the KwaZulu Natal Province lost support to the ANC because of its poor record in governing the Province.
Parties to the left of the ANC failed to win support. This was partly because of their own internal weaknesses, divisions, incoherence and lack of profile as well as the result of superior campaigning by the ANC.
The Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) had a disastrous campaign marred by a number of internal conflicts and splits. Their support slipped from just over 1 per cent in 1999 to 0.7 per cent this year. They were outperformed by the Independent Democrats, a new party that was formed when one of the PAC ?s most vocal parliamentarians split away in 2003 and linked up with white liberal forces disaffected by the right-wing turn of the DA. They obtained more than 2 per cent of the vote, mainly at the expense of the former white opposition parties.
AZAPO of the black consciousness tradition did even worse. They were not able to recover from the disastrous decision to boycott the 1994 liberation elections and only received 0.27 per cent of the vote. The Socialist Party of Azania (SOPA), a split from AZAPO with links to the international Lambertist current, received insufficient votes to be represented in either the national or provincial parliaments.
The parties that had positioned themselves to the left of the ANC were unable to tap into those sections of the population disillusioned with the ANC 's failure to meaningfully change their lives. It is obvious that the ANC was able to convince doubting voters to give them another chance. The party ran a clever campaign, highlighted by President Mbeki dispensing with the trappings of power and going "down to the people". Television and radio covered the President sitting on the floor humbly listening to the problems of ordinary people and pledging to make things better. Millions of people responded to this back-to-basics campaign, hoping that the ANC 's grassroots election campaign signalled a return by the party to its roots as a popular liberation movement.
This is unlikely to happen. Over the last 10 years the compromises entailed in ensuring a smooth transition from apartheid, coupled with the ANC 's fear of confronting capital has fundamentally transformed the party. Now the major concern of the ANC is creating an environment for attracting foreign investment and negotiating with big capital to make space for a black capitalist class to emerge. Entry into the growing black elite is via political connections to the ruling party. Today the top leadership of the ANC has secured roots within big business and big business has in turn embraced the ANC.
In the face of this shift the failure of COSATU to break away from the Alliance with the ANC and SACP limits the space for a left alternative to emerge. The ANC will wave aside criticism of their policies by referring to the strong mandate they have been given by the masses. New social movements and popular organisations have begun to fill the vacuum to the left of the ANC but they are very embryonic and still relatively weak. something here on the attack by the ANC on them? A sectarian stance towards the ANC and lack of a united front strategy with COSATU risks marginalising them from the millions still having illusions in the former liberation movement. Some of these organisations like the Landless Peoples Movement and the Ant-Privatisation Forum called for a boycott of the election or for voters to spoil their ballots.
The left in South Africa faces a more difficult situation in building an alternative to the ANC after the 2004 elections. However, the strong performance of the ANC masks high levels of disillusionment amongst its ranks. By focusing on taking up the day-to-day struggles of workers, constructing broad alliances against the government's neo-liberal policies within a united front perspective may create opportunities for a more serious left challenge during 2005's local government elections.
Mercia Andrews and Brian Ashley
Alternative Information and Development Centre